Dr. Eva Deuchert

• Journal Articles
• Other publications

Journal Articles

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2007

• Brody, Stuart, Deuchert, Eva
  Lack of autodisable syringe use and health care indicators are associated with high HIV prevalence: an international ecologic analysis
  2007 Ann Epidemiol, volume: 17, issue: 3, pages: 199 - 207
  
   
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• Deuchert, Eva
  Maternal Health Care and the Spread of Aids in Burkina Faso and Cameroon
  2007 World health & population, volume: 9, issue: 3, pages: 55 - 72
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  Abstract

  This paper analyzes whether exposure to maternal healthcare is associated with a higher risk of HIV infection. Using data provided by Demographic and Health Surveys in Burkina Faso and Cameroon, the paper finds that women are 26% to 78% more likely to be HIV positive if they received tetanus toxoid injections during their last pregnancy. The analysis does not provide empirical evidence for the hypotheses that this association might be due to reverse causality, omitted variables or self-selection
• Brody, Stuart, Deuchert, Eva
  Plausible and Implausible Parameters for Mathematical Modeling of Nominal Heterosexual HIV Transmission
  2007 Ann Epidemiol, volume: 17, issue: 3, pages: 237 - 244
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  Abstract

  PURPOSE: Several mathematical models simulate a HIV/AIDS epidemic by using the assumption that heterosexual transmission is the major or sole transmission mode. The validity of these models has been unclear. To understand the validity of these models, empirical estimates for relevant model parameters are needed that can be compared with parameters used in mathematical models. METHODS: A brief review of per-contact transmission probabilities based on HIV-discordant, monogamous couples is provided, and sources of bias in transmission efficiency estimates are discussed. Average number of partnerships and the distribution of partnerships are estimated for seven sub-Saharan African countries. Distribution parameters are fitted to the Poisson distribution, negative binomial distribution, and the discrete Pareto (Zipf) distribution, using the maximum likelihood method. The Pearson Χ2 test statistic is used to measure goodness of fit, and the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria are also provided. To balance the reported number of partnerships, missing number of prostitutes is estimated. These empirical estimates for relevant model parameters are compared with parameters used in representative models of nominal heterosexual HIV transmission in Africa. RESULTS: Reported transmission efficiencies (unadjusted for competing exposures that inflate estimates) per sexual episode range from 0.0003 to 0.0012. Average number of partnerships is less than 1.5 in all countries. The discrete Pareto distribution fits the data better than the Poisson or negative binominal distribution. In almost all countries, female reported number of partners follows a discrete Pareto distribution. To close the sex disparity gap in number of partnerships, between 0.13% and 0.69% of the female population would need to be classified as prostitutes. Comparing these estimates with the parameter values used in existing mathematical models shows that existing models use grossly inflated per contact transmission efficiencies or rely on implausible assumptions regarding contact frequency, which results in implausibly high per-partner transmission rates. Assumptions regarding average number of partners are too high, and the distribution of partnerships is not supported by available data. As a consequence, existing mathematical models overestimate nominally heterosexually transmitted HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Existing models of nominal heterosexual HIV transmission for sub-Saharan Africa rely on assumptions inconsistent with empirical evidence. Simulations have not accurately portrayed the epidemiological situation in sub-Saharan Africa, and conclusions drawn from these models should be interpreted with great caution. To realistically simulate HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa's general population nominally due to heterosexual HIV transmission, parameter values should be based on the most accurate data.
• Brody, Stuart, Deuchert, Eva
  The Evidence for Health-Care Transmission of HIV in Africa Should Determine Prevention Priorities
  2007 Int J Std Aids, volume: 18, issue: 4, pages: 290 - 291

2006

• Deuchert, Eva, Brody, Stuart
  The Role of Health Care in the Spread of HIV/AIDS in Africa: Evidence from Kenya
  2006 Int J Std Aids, volume: 17, issue: 11, pages: 749 - 752

2005

• Deuchert, Eva, Adjamah, Kossi, Pauly, Florian
  For Oscar Glory or for Oscar Money? - Academy Awards and Movie Success
  2005 Journal of Cultural Economics, volume: 29, issue: 3, pages: 159 - 176

Other publications

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2008

• Deuchert, Eva
  HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa - An Econometric Analysis of HIV Risk Factors, Ph. D. Dissertation
  , 2008

2007

• Deuchert, Eva, Sajons, Gwendolin, Schulze, Günther G.
  Rational Sex in Times of AIDS?
  University of Freiburg, mimeo, 2007

2006

• Deuchert, Eva, Fliedner, Juliane
  The Wealth-Puzzle in Kenya's HIV/AIDS Epidemic: Does Sex Explain Higher Prevalence for Wealthier People?
  University of Freiburg, mimeo, 2006